Ostersunds FK 3-2 Lund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Lund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Relegation Round sees Lund travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Jämtkraft Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jämtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Lund — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Lund have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ostersunds FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ostersunds FK, 0 for Lund and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Ostersunds FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.48 xG and Lund 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.893 / defence 1.009 | Lund attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.194. Data: 60 Ostersunds FK games / 0 Lund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 47% | Draw 28% | Lund 25%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Lund 4.00. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Lund | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 47% | Draw 28% | Lund 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.48 / Lund 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.893 / def 1.009 | Lund attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Lund xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Lund kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Lund kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Lund?
Ostersunds FK 3 - 2 Lund.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Lund being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Lund part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Lund is a Relegation Round fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Lund?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 47% chance of winning, Lund a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Lund?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Lund will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Lund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Lund?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 0 | Lund 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Lund in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Lund (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
What do the betting odds say about Ostersunds FK vs Lund?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lund's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lund's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.52
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.50
1.02
Lund xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
6%
17.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Lund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Lund expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.02 for Lund, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Lund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lund sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ostersunds FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Lund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Lund are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Lund in 0%.
Defensively: Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Early Season
Lund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Lund in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Lund have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Ostersunds FK or Lund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Lund in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
0
Draws
0
Lund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Lund?
From 2 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Lund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Lund last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when Ostersunds FK 3-2 Lund.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Lund?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Lund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Lund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 0% of Lund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Lund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 0% of Lund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Lund tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lund in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Lund 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Lund 3-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Relegation Round, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.48 xG and Lund 1.02 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lund outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against Lund attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 47% | Draw 28% | Lund 25%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 0%, Lund 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Ostersunds FK arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ostersunds FK scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lund scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.