Ostersunds FK 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 August 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jämtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jämtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Eskilstuna stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 1.30 (AFC Eskilstuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ostersunds FK, 2 for AFC Eskilstuna and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
AFC Eskilstuna trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 55% versus AFC Eskilstuna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 40% | AFC Eskilstuna 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.78 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.186 / defence 1.088 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.892 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.191. Data: 47 Ostersunds FK games / 47 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 51% | Draw 24% | AFC Eskilstuna 24%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | AFC Eskilstuna 4.17. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 80% | AFC Eskilstuna 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 51% | Draw 24% | AFC Eskilstuna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.78 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.186 / def 1.088 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.892 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.16
AFC Eskilstuna xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 51% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (3 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | AFC Eskilstuna 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (1.19) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.09
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.93
1.16
AFC Eskilstuna xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
4%
24.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.16 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 14W 16D 17L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna's form line: 17W 10D 20L from 47 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.23 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (9W 8D 6L).
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 6W 5D 12L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.36 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 14W 16D 17L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 17W 10D 20L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.52 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2022, when AFC Eskilstuna won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when Ostersunds FK 1-1 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 61%, AFC Eskilstuna 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ostersunds FK) and 56% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; AFC Eskilstuna in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Ostersunds FK's games and 52% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Ostersunds FK and AFC Eskilstuna drew 1-1 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.78 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.16 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.19 / defence 1.09 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 51% | Draw 24% | AFC Eskilstuna 24%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 40%, AFC Eskilstuna 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.23 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.