Osters IF 5-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osters IF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osters IF host Trelleborg at Visma Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osters IF — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Visma Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osters IF 1.40 PPG, Trelleborg 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osters IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Trelleborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Osters IF have won 1, Trelleborg 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Trelleborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Osters IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Trelleborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 53% and Trelleborg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 42% | Trelleborg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.45 xG and Trelleborg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.061 / defence 1.004 | Trelleborg attack 1.027 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.083. Data: 31 Osters IF games / 31 Trelleborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Osters IF 45% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 29%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Trelleborg 3.45. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 70% | Trelleborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 45% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Osters IF 1.45 / Trelleborg 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.061 / def 1.004 | Trelleborg attack 1.027 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Trelleborg xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Trelleborg kick off?
Osters IF vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Osters IF 5 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Osters IF vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Trelleborg part of?
Osters IF vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 45% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Osters IF and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Trelleborg?
Record (4 meetings): Osters IF 1W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 2W.
What form are Osters IF and Trelleborg in?
Osters IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 1.06x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.83
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.57
1.12
Trelleborg xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
7%
14.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.12 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 25W 19D 16L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Trelleborg's form line: 24W 16D 20L from 60 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.57 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.80 PPG from 30 outings (15W 9D 6L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 9W 10D 11L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 25W 19D 16L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Trelleborg away?
Osters IF's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.80 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osters IF's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Osters IF
1
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 5, Trelleborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2024, when Osters IF 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Trelleborg?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 57%, Trelleborg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Osters IF) and 53% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Osters IF's games and 67% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osters IF vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Osters IF's recent games and 53% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Trelleborg 5-2 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.45 xG and Trelleborg 1.12 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trelleborg outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Trelleborg attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 45% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 29%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 42%, Trelleborg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.57 PPG, Trelleborg 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.