Orgryte IS 5-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Varbergs BoIS FC at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Orgryte IS are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 0 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Orgryte IS trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 62% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 57% | Varbergs BoIS FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.45 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.348 / defence 0.901 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.227 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.256. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Varbergs BoIS FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Orgryte IS games / 37 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 39% | Draw 25% | Varbergs BoIS FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 39% | Draw 25% | Varbergs BoIS FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Orgryte IS 1.45 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.348 / def 0.901 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.227 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Orgryte IS 5 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 39% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (2 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (1.35) and Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
39%
2.58
25%
3.99
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.83
1.39
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.39 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 22W 14D 24L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 13W 15D 32L from 60 games, 0.90 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Orgryte IS are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Varbergs BoIS FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (11W 8D 11L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 7W 6D 17L from 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.37 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orgryte IS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2025, when Orgryte IS won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 70%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Orgryte IS and 63% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Orgryte IS's games and 57% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Orgryte IS's matches and 63% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Orgryte IS and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orgryte IS run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Varbergs BoIS FC 5-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.45 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.35 / defence 0.90 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 39% | Draw 25% | Varbergs BoIS FC 36%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 57%, Varbergs BoIS FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.