Orgryte IS 1-0 United Nordic – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs United Nordic encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Relegation Round sees United Nordic travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Across all Superettan games this season, United Nordic have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. United Nordic have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Orgryte IS carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 0 for United Nordic and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Orgryte IS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.45 xG and United Nordic 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.802 / defence 1.266 | United Nordic attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.195. Data: 60 Orgryte IS games / 0 United Nordic games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 41% | Draw 26% | United Nordic 34%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | United Nordic 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs United Nordic | Competition: Superettan, Relegation Round | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 41% | Draw 26% | United Nordic 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Orgryte IS 1.45 / United Nordic 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.802 / def 1.266 | United Nordic attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.29
United Nordic xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs United Nordic kick off?
Orgryte IS vs United Nordic kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs United Nordic?
Orgryte IS 1 - 0 United Nordic.
Where is Orgryte IS vs United Nordic being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs United Nordic part of?
Orgryte IS vs United Nordic is a Relegation Round fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs United Nordic?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 41% chance of winning, United Nordic a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs United Nordic?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Orgryte IS and United Nordic will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs United Nordic have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and United Nordic?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | United Nordic 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and United Nordic in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. United Nordic (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against United Nordic's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, United Nordic's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
41%
2.44
26%
3.92
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.73
1.29
United Nordic xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs United Nordic?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and United Nordic expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.29 for United Nordic, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs United Nordic?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Orgryte IS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
United Nordic's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for United Nordic, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Orgryte IS are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against United Nordic.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; United Nordic are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; United Nordic in 0%.
Defensively: Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Early Season
United Nordic
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and United Nordic in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while United Nordic have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Orgryte IS or United Nordic been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, United Nordic in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
0
United Nordic
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and United Nordic?
From 2 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, United Nordic have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and United Nordic last play each other?
They last met on 26 November 2023, when Orgryte IS 1-0 United Nordic.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and United Nordic?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / United Nordic away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play United Nordic?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 0% of United Nordic's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs United Nordic usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 0% of United Nordic's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and United Nordic tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, United Nordic in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Orgryte IS edge out United Nordic 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat United Nordic 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Relegation Round, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.45 xG and United Nordic 1.29 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. United Nordic landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.80 / defence 1.27 against United Nordic attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 41% | Draw 26% | United Nordic 34%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 0%, United Nordic 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.