Orgryte IS 0-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 17 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orgryte IS have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Orgryte IS 0W, Ostersunds FK 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 66% versus Ostersunds FK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 49% | Ostersunds FK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.74 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.051 / defence 1.066 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.724 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.308. Data: 53 Orgryte IS games / 23 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Ostersunds FK 4.76. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 60% | Ostersunds FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Orgryte IS 1.74 / Ostersunds FK 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.051 / def 1.066 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.724 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Ostersunds FK xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Orgryte IS 0 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 54% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (1.05) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.72x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
54%
1.86
25%
3.98
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.75
1.01
Ostersunds FK xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
4%
26.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.01 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 14W 23D 16L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 7W 12D 34L from 53 games, 0.62 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Orgryte IS are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (6W 14D 6L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 5D 20L from 26 away games — 0.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.91 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 14W 23D 16L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 7W 12D 34L in their last 53 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.23 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orgryte IS won 6-0 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
3
Draws
3
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Orgryte IS 6-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 65%, Ostersunds FK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Orgryte IS) and 46% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS have failed to score in 27% of games; Ostersunds FK in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 42% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 46% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ostersunds FK defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Orgryte IS 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.74 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.01 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orgryte IS fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.16, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 21%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Ostersunds FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 49%, Ostersunds FK 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Ostersunds FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.