Orebro SK 0-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Orebro SK welcome Ostersunds FK to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orebro SK have posted 2W 3D 5L at Behrn Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ostersunds FK are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Orebro SK, 1 for Ostersunds FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Ostersunds FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus Ostersunds FK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 50% | Ostersunds FK 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.41 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.025 / defence 1.055 | Ostersunds FK attack 1.014 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.114. Data: 31 Orebro SK games / 31 Ostersunds FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 42% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 32%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Ostersunds FK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ostersunds FK (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 50% | Ostersunds FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 42% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Orebro SK 1.41 / Ostersunds FK 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.025 / def 1.055 | Ostersunds FK attack 1.014 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Ostersunds FK xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Orebro SK 0 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 42% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK?
Record (3 meetings): Orebro SK 2W | Draws 0 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 1.02x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.82
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.60
1.19
Ostersunds FK xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.19 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orebro SK come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 13D 33L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 0.75 PPG from 60 outings (10W 15D 35L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 0.92 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Orebro SK's home form reads 8W 7D 15L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.47 points per game from 30 outings (2W 8D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 10W 15D 35L in their last 60 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.03 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Orebro SK won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Orebro SK
2
Draws
4
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 4, Ostersunds FK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Ostersunds FK 3-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 50%, Ostersunds FK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Orebro SK) and 43% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 33% of games; Ostersunds FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 47% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Orebro SK's recent games and 43% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and Ostersunds FK finished level at 0-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.41 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.19 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.02 / defence 1.05 against Ostersunds FK attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 42% | Draw 26% | Ostersunds FK 32%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 50%, Ostersunds FK 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 0.92 PPG, Ostersunds FK 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.