Orebro SK 2-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 35%, yet in-form Landskrona BoIS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Landskrona BoIS's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Landskrona BoIS's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Orebro SK's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Orebro SK, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2022, ended 1–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 45% versus Landskrona BoIS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 50% | Landskrona BoIS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.14 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.834 / defence 1.200 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.739 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.252. Data: 28 Orebro SK games / 58 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 35% | Draw 32% | Landskrona BoIS 33%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Landskrona BoIS 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Landskrona BoIS (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 40% | Landskrona BoIS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 35% | Draw 32% | Landskrona BoIS 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Orebro SK 1.14 / Landskrona BoIS 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.834 / def 1.200 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.739 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Landskrona BoIS xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Orebro SK 2 - 2 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 35% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
35%
2.89
32%
3.08
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.25
1.11
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
11%
9.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.11 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 14W 11D 33L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 23W 15D 20L from 58 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.03 PPG from 29 outings (8W 6D 15L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 5W 8D 16L from 29 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 14W 11D 33L in their last 58 games (0.91 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 23W 15D 20L in their last 58 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.03 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Orebro SK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Orebro SK
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Orebro SK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 48%, Landskrona BoIS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Orebro SK) and 48% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 34% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 52% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Orebro SK's recent games and 48% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS finished level at 2-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.14 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.11 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.83 / defence 1.20 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.74 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 35% | Draw 32% | Landskrona BoIS 33%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 50%, Landskrona BoIS 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.