Orebro SK 2-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Orebro SK face Degerfors IF.

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Match Analysis

Orebro SK host Degerfors IF at Behrn Arena in Superettan (matchday 7). Kick-off is Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Orebro SK — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Orebro SK at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Orebro SK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Degerfors IF stand at 3W 7D 0L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Degerfors IF have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 1.60 (Degerfors IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Orebro SK have won 0, Degerfors IF 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2021, ended Orebro SK 1–2 Degerfors IF — a Degerfors IF win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Orebro SK trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Degerfors IF trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 63% | Degerfors IF 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.60 xG and Degerfors IF 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.139 / defence 1.017 | Degerfors IF attack 0.981 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 0.980. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 36 games and Degerfors IF's last 6.

Result probabilities: Orebro SK 52% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 23%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.93 | Draw 3.91 | Degerfors IF 4.40. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (Orebro SK's last 10 home games and Degerfors IF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Orebro SK 40% (last 10 home games) | Degerfors IF 70% (last 10 away games).

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