Oddevold 0-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oddevold vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.

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Full Analysis

Rimnersvallen plays host to Oddevold versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Oddevold have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Oddevold's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 2L across 9 games at Rimnersvallen this term (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Landskrona BoIS are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Oddevold have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Landskrona BoIS in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Oddevold 0W, Landskrona BoIS 1W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Oddevold goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oddevold 65% and Landskrona BoIS 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 70% | Landskrona BoIS 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.08 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.850 / defence 1.186 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.108 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.208. Data: 20 Oddevold games / 50 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Oddevold 25% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 48%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 2.08. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 67% | Landskrona BoIS 70% BTTS from recent games.

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