Norrby IF 4-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norrby IF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Norrby IF and Vasteras SK FK meet at Borås Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Norrby IF have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF at Borås Arena this season: 3W 1D 1L from 5 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Vasteras SK FK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Norrby IF's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Vasteras SK FK's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Norrby IF half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 33% versus Vasteras SK FK 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Norrby IF 33% | Vasteras SK FK 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.14 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 1.056 / defence 1.077 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.674 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.088. Data: 12 Norrby IF games / 12 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 44% | Draw 31% | Vasteras SK FK 25%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Vasteras SK FK 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norrby IF at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Norrby IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 40% | Vasteras SK FK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 44% | Draw 31% | Vasteras SK FK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Norrby IF 1.14 / Vasteras SK FK 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 1.056 / def 1.077 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.674 / def 1.121 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Vasteras SK FK xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 July 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Norrby IF 4 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 44% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Norrby IF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Norrby IF's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.67x) against Norrby IF's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
44%
2.28
31%
3.24
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
1.93
0.79
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
8%
12.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Norrby IF and 0.79 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Norrby IF come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 2D 3L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.17 PPG from 12 outings (3W 5D 4L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Norrby IF's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Norrby IF are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 0.75 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 games (1.92 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Norrby IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 2.00 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Norrby IF won 4-1 on 26 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norrby IF have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Norrby IF
1
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2022, when Vasteras SK FK 3-2 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Vasteras SK FK?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 40%, Vasteras SK FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Norrby IF and 20% for Vasteras SK FK.
On the defensive side: Norrby IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Norrby IF's recent matches and 40% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norrby IF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Norrby IF's recent games and 20% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Norrby IF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Vasteras SK FK 4-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.14 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.79 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Norrby IF beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 44% | Draw 31% | Vasteras SK FK 25%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 33%, Vasteras SK FK 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Norrby IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.