Norrby IF 2-3 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Norrby IF and Trelleborg meet at Borås Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 July 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Norrby IF's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF at Borås Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Trelleborg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Trelleborg are 0.60 PPG clear of Norrby IF in recent Superettan fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Norrby IF, 2 for Trelleborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Trelleborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Norrby IF — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 51% versus Trelleborg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 40% | Trelleborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.10 xG and Trelleborg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.720 / defence 0.844 | Trelleborg attack 1.060 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.269. Norrby IF's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Norrby IF games / 45 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 33% | Draw 32% | Trelleborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Trelleborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Norrby IF 30% | Trelleborg 80%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 33% | Draw 32% | Trelleborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Norrby IF 1.10 / Trelleborg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.720 / def 0.844 | Trelleborg attack 1.060 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Trelleborg xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Trelleborg kick off?
Norrby IF vs Trelleborg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Trelleborg?
Norrby IF 2 - 3 Trelleborg.
Where is Norrby IF vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Trelleborg part of?
Norrby IF vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 33% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Norrby IF and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Trelleborg?
Record (3 meetings): Norrby IF 0W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 2W.
What form are Norrby IF and Trelleborg in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Norrby IF's attack at 0.72x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (1.06x) against Norrby IF's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
33%
3.02
32%
3.11
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.24
1.13
Trelleborg xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.13 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Norrby IF come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 12D 15L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.51 PPG from 45 outings (18W 14D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Norrby IF against 1.51 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Norrby IF's home form reads 8W 8D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.18 points per game from 22 outings (6W 8D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Norrby IF are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.47 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 67%.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 18W 12D 15L in their last 45 games (1.47 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 18W 14D 13L in their last 45 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Trelleborg away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.45 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Trelleborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norrby IF have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Norrby IF
1
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Trelleborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 0, Trelleborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when Norrby IF 2-3 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 46%, Trelleborg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Norrby IF) and 50% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Norrby IF have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Norrby IF's games and 68% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Norrby IF's recent games and 50% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Norrby IF 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Norrby IF 2-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.10 xG and Trelleborg 1.13 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Norrby IF beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trelleborg outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.72 / defence 0.84 against Trelleborg attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 33% | Draw 32% | Trelleborg 35%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 40%, Trelleborg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Trelleborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norrby IF 1.47 PPG, Trelleborg 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Norrby IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.