Norrby IF 0-0 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 25 as Norrby IF welcome Skövde AIK to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borås Arena, Norrby IF have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Norrby IF are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Skövde AIK — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Skövde AIK's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Norrby IF 0.90 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Norrby IF, 1 for Skövde AIK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Skövde AIK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Norrby IF trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Skövde AIK trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 58% versus Skövde AIK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 50% | Skövde AIK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.76 xG and Skövde AIK 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 1.018 / defence 0.895 | Skövde AIK attack 0.965 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.277. Data: 54 Norrby IF games / 24 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 52% | Draw 24% | Skövde AIK 23%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Skövde AIK 4.35. Norrby IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Norrby IF as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norrby IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 50% | Skövde AIK 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 52% | Draw 24% | Skövde AIK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Norrby IF 1.76 / Skövde AIK 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 1.018 / def 0.895 | Skövde AIK attack 0.965 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Skövde AIK xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK?
Norrby IF 0 - 0 Skövde AIK.
Where is Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK part of?
Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 52% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Norrby IF and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Skövde AIK?
Record (1 meetings): Norrby IF 0W | Draws 0 | Skövde AIK 1W.
What form are Norrby IF and Skövde AIK in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Skövde AIK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Norrby IF's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Skövde AIK's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Skövde AIK's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.14
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.86
1.10
Skövde AIK xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
4%
24.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.10 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Norrby IF come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 6D 11L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Skövde AIK sit at 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Norrby IF on 1.27 PPG, Skövde AIK on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Norrby IF's home form reads 6W 4D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Norrby IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Skövde AIK have taken 1.62 points per game from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Norrby IF are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.42 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Skövde AIK in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 11W 8D 7L in their last 26 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Skövde AIK away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.69 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norrby IF and Skövde AIK runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Norrby IF
1
Draws
1
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Skövde AIK?
From 2 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 0, Skövde AIK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2022, when Norrby IF 0-0 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Skövde AIK?
Skövde AIK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 38%, Skövde AIK 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Norrby IF) and 62% (Skövde AIK).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Skövde AIK in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Skövde AIK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Norrby IF's recent matches and 69% of Skövde AIK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norrby IF vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Norrby IF's recent games and 62% of Skövde AIK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Norrby IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 25, as Norrby IF and Skövde AIK drew 0-0 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.76 xG and Skövde AIK 1.10 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Norrby IF fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Skövde AIK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Skövde AIK attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 52% | Draw 24% | Skövde AIK 23%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 50%, Skövde AIK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norrby IF 1.27 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.