Norrby IF 0-0 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Norrby IF at 40%, yet in-form Osters IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Norrby IF vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Norrby IF host Osters IF at Borås Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borås Arena, Norrby IF have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Norrby IF are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Osters IF — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Osters IF — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Norrby IF have won 0, Osters IF 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Norrby IF trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Osters IF trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 52% versus Osters IF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Norrby IF 40% | Osters IF 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.21 xG and Osters IF 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 1.007 / defence 1.197 | Osters IF attack 0.729 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.194. Data: 25 Norrby IF games / 25 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 40% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 32%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Osters IF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Norrby IF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osters IF (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Norrby IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 60% | Osters IF 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 40% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Norrby IF 1.21 / Osters IF 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 1.007 / def 1.197 | Osters IF attack 0.729 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Osters IF xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Osters IF kick off?
Norrby IF vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Osters IF?
Norrby IF 0 - 0 Osters IF.
Where is Norrby IF vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Osters IF part of?
Norrby IF vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 40% chance of winning, Osters IF a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Norrby IF and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Osters IF?
Record (1 meetings): Norrby IF 0W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are Norrby IF and Osters IF in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Norrby IF's attack rating (1.01) and Osters IF's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
40%
2.51
29%
3.50
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.25
1.04
Osters IF xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.04 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Norrby IF have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 10W 8D 7L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF's form line: 9W 8D 8L from 25 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Norrby IF on 1.52 PPG, Osters IF on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Norrby IF have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 3W 3D 6L from 12 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Norrby IF are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.00 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 10W 8D 7L in their last 25 games (1.52 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 9W 8D 8L in their last 25 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Osters IF away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.58 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Osters IF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norrby IF and Osters IF runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Norrby IF's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
2
Draws
2
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Osters IF?
From 5 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, Osters IF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Osters IF 2-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 58%, Osters IF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Norrby IF and 25% for Osters IF.
On the defensive side: Osters IF in 33%; Osters IF in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Norrby IF's recent matches and 33% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norrby IF vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Norrby IF's recent games and 25% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Osters IF tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Norrby IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Norrby IF and Osters IF drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.21 xG and Osters IF 1.04 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Norrby IF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Osters IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against Osters IF attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 40% | Draw 29% | Osters IF 32%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 40%, Osters IF 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osters IF's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norrby IF 1.52 PPG, Osters IF 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Norrby IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.