Norrby IF 3-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norrby IF at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs Orebro SK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to Norrby IF versus Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Monday 10 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Norrby IF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF at Borås Arena this season: 3W 4D 2L from 9 home games — 1.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Orebro SK's overall Superettan record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orebro SK have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Norrby IF. A 1.00 PPG lead over Orebro SK (1.30 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Norrby IF lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Norrby IF — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 32% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 68% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norrby IF 47% | Orebro SK 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.61 xG and Orebro SK 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.951 / defence 1.167 | Orebro SK attack 0.827 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.335. Data: 17 Norrby IF games / 47 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 45% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 31%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Orebro SK 3.23. Norrby IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norrby IF at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Norrby IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 67% | Orebro SK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 10 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 45% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Norrby IF 1.61 / Orebro SK 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.951 / def 1.167 | Orebro SK attack 0.827 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Orebro SK xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Norrby IF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 10 August 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?
Norrby IF 3 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Norrby IF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Orebro SK part of?
Norrby IF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 45% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Norrby IF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Orebro SK?
Record (3 meetings): Norrby IF 0W | Draws 2 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Norrby IF and Orebro SK in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Norrby IF's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.83x) against Norrby IF's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
45%
2.23
24%
4.09
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.90
1.29
Orebro SK xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.29 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Norrby IF come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 11D 4L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Norrby IF against 0.95 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Norrby IF's home form reads 3W 4D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Norrby IF are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.79 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norrby IF have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 4W 11D 4L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 4W 6D 9L in their last 19 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Orebro SK away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.44 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norrby IF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
2
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, Orebro SK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Norrby IF 3-1 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Norrby IF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 67%, Orebro SK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Norrby IF) and 33% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 33%; Norrby IF have failed to score in 33% of games; Orebro SK in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Norrby IF's games and 44% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Norrby IF's recent games and 33% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Norrby IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Orebro SK 3-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.61 xG and Orebro SK 1.29 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Norrby IF beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.95 / defence 1.17 against Orebro SK attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 45% | Draw 24% | Orebro SK 31%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 47%, Orebro SK 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norrby IF 1.21 PPG, Orebro SK 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Norrby IF win broke the near-deadlock. Norrby IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.