Landskrona BoIS 3-1 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vasalund make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Landskrona BoIS's home record at Landskrona Idrottsplats: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Vasalund (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vasalund's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Landskrona BoIS, 0.90 for Vasalund — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 1W, Vasalund 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2021, ended 3–0 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Vasalund — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 57% versus Vasalund 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 46% | Vasalund 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.56 xG and Vasalund 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.044 / defence 1.097 | Vasalund attack 0.824 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.254. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Landskrona BoIS games / 28 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 27% | Vasalund 27%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Vasalund 3.70. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Vasalund 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 27% | Vasalund 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.56 / Vasalund 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.044 / def 1.097 | Vasalund attack 0.824 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Vasalund xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund?
Landskrona BoIS 3 - 1 Vasalund.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 46% chance of winning, Vasalund a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Vasalund?
Record (1 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 0 | Vasalund 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Vasalund in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Vasalund (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Vasalund's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Vasalund's attack (0.82x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.74
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.69
1.13
Vasalund xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
6%
17.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.13 for Vasalund, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 12W 5D 11L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Vasalund's form line: 7W 5D 16L from 28 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasalund.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2.29 PPG from 14 outings (10W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vasalund have gone 3W 2D 9L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Vasalund are on 1.18 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Vasalund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Vasalund in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 12W 5D 11L in their last 28 games (1.46 PPG), while Vasalund have gone 7W 5D 16L in their last 28 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Vasalund away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.29 PPG; Vasalund away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
0
Draws
0
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Vasalund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2021, when Landskrona BoIS 3-1 Vasalund.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Vasalund?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Vasalund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 50%, Vasalund 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Landskrona BoIS) and 71% (Vasalund).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Vasalund in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Vasalund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 57% of Vasalund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Vasalund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 71% of Vasalund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Vasalund tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Vasalund in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vasalund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Vasalund 3-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.56 xG and Vasalund 1.13 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Vasalund attack 0.82 / defence 1.34, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 27% | Vasalund 27%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 46%, Vasalund 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Vasalund's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Vasalund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.