Landskrona BoIS 2-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Osters IF make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 6W 2D 2L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osters IF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Osters IF are 0.50 PPG clear of Landskrona BoIS in recent Superettan fixtures (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Osters IF in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Osters IF, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Osters IF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Osters IF have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 62% and Osters IF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 54% | Osters IF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.50 xG and Osters IF 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.021 / defence 0.976 | Osters IF attack 1.291 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.204. Osters IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Landskrona BoIS games / 52 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 37% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 37%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Osters IF 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 60% | Osters IF 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 37% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.50 / Osters IF 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.021 / def 0.976 | Osters IF attack 1.291 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Osters IF xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 37% chance of winning, Osters IF a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF?
Record (5 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 2 | Osters IF 3W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Osters IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 1.02x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (1.29x) against Landskrona BoIS's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
37%
2.73
26%
3.80
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
3.02
1.52
Osters IF xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.52 for Osters IF, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 21W 14D 17L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF's form line: 24W 13D 15L from 52 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Landskrona BoIS against 1.63 for Osters IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.88 PPG from 26 outings (14W 7D 5L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 11W 8D 7L from 26 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.69 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Osters IF in 67%.
Last 52 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 21W 14D 17L in their last 52 games (1.48 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 24W 13D 15L in their last 52 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Osters IF away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.88 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 1-4 on 2 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Landskrona BoIS have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Landskrona BoIS
5
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 0, Osters IF have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 2-2 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Landskrona BoIS, 73% for Osters IF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Landskrona BoIS) and 62% (Osters IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 73% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 62% of Osters IF's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 23, as Landskrona BoIS and Osters IF drew 2-2 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.50 xG and Osters IF 1.52 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Osters IF attack 1.29 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 37% | Draw 26% | Osters IF 37%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 54%, Osters IF 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.48 PPG, Osters IF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.