Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 50%, yet in-form Orebro SK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host Orebro SK at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 27 June 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 8W 0D 2L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Orebro SK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Orebro SK's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Orebro SK's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Landskrona BoIS's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 57% versus Orebro SK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 47% | Orebro SK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.77 xG and Orebro SK 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.145 / defence 1.204 | Orebro SK attack 0.726 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.376. Data: 40 Landskrona BoIS games / 10 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 25%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Orebro SK 4.00. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orebro SK (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Orebro SK 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.77 / Orebro SK 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.145 / def 1.204 | Orebro SK attack 0.726 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Orebro SK xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 50% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (1.15) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.05
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.98
1.20
Orebro SK xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
4%
23.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.20 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 5D 12L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (12W 6D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. Orebro SK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.47 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 11W 2D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 1.00 points per game from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.23 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 13W 5D 12L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Orebro SK away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 2.33 PPG; Orebro SK away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Orebro SK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
3
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK?
From 9 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Orebro SK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Orebro SK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 53%, Orebro SK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Landskrona BoIS) and 53% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 47% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 53% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Orebro SK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Orebro SK 2-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.77 xG and Orebro SK 1.20 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.15 / defence 1.20 against Orebro SK attack 0.73 / defence 1.06, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 50% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 25%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 47%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, Orebro SK 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.