Landskrona BoIS 2-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Landskrona Idrottsplats plays host to Landskrona BoIS versus Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Tuesday 19 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Landskrona BoIS's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Landskrona BoIS's home record at Landskrona Idrottsplats: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.

Jonkopings Sodra have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Landskrona BoIS, 1.20 for Jonkopings Sodra — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Landskrona BoIS 0W, Jonkopings Sodra 1W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2021, ended 1–3 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 58% versus Jonkopings Sodra 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 46% | Jonkopings Sodra 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.53 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.037 / defence 0.886 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.704 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.162. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Landskrona BoIS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Landskrona BoIS games / 24 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 56% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 18%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Jonkopings Sodra 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Landskrona BoIS (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Jonkopings Sodra 40% BTTS from recent games.

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