Landskrona BoIS 3-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host IK brage at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Landskrona BoIS at 0.80 PPG versus IK brage's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Landskrona BoIS, 2 for IK brage and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 56% versus IK brage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 58% | IK brage 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.04 xG and IK brage 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.980 / defence 1.049 | IK brage attack 0.784 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.194. IK brage's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Landskrona BoIS games / 57 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 35% | Draw 33% | IK brage 32%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | IK brage 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 40% | IK brage 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 35% | Draw 33% | IK brage 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.04 / IK brage 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.980 / def 1.049 | IK brage attack 0.784 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.98
IK brage xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Landskrona BoIS 3 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 35% chance of winning, IK brage a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
Record (6 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 3 | IK brage 2W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. IK brage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (0.98) and IK brage's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
35%
2.84
33%
3.04
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.03
0.98
IK brage xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.98 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Landskrona BoIS's recent record stands at 24W 12D 21L from 57 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 22L across 57 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.47 PPG, IK brage on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Landskrona BoIS have managed 13W 7D 8L from 28 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 6W 7D 15L across 28 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IK brage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.19 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 12D 21L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while IK brage have gone 23W 12D 22L in their last 57 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or IK brage away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.64 PPG; IK brage away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, IK brage in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
5
Draws
3
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, IK brage have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 54%, IK brage 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Landskrona BoIS) and 32% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; IK brage in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 39% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 32% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and IK brage tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, IK brage in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Landskrona BoIS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat IK brage 3-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.04 xG and IK brage 0.98 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IK brage landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against IK brage attack 0.78 / defence 0.76, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 35% | Draw 33% | IK brage 32%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 58%, IK brage 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
IK brage's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, IK brage 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.