Jonkopings Sodra 4-1 Akropolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 9 as Jonkopings Sodra welcome Akropolis to Vapenvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 7 June 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.49 xG and Akropolis 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.329 / defence 1.021 | Akropolis attack 0.727 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 0.873 / away 0.989. Jonkopings Sodra carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Akropolis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Jonkopings Sodra games / 8 Akropolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 55% | Draw 26% | Akropolis 18%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Akropolis 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Jonkopings Sodra (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Vapenvallen • Kick-off: Monday 7 Jun 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 55% | Draw 26% | Akropolis 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.49 / Akropolis 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.329 / def 1.021 | Akropolis attack 0.727 / def 1.286 | league avg home 0.873 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Akropolis xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 7 June 2021 at Vapenvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis?
Jonkopings Sodra 4 - 1 Akropolis.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis being played?
The match is being played at Vapenvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 55% chance of winning, Akropolis a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Akropolis will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Akropolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Akropolis in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 1.33x the league average against Akropolis's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akropolis's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.81
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.23
0.73
Akropolis xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
4%
24.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Akropolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.73 for Akropolis, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Akropolis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Pre-Season
Akropolis
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
1
Draws
0
Akropolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Akropolis?
From 2 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, Akropolis have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Akropolis last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2021, when Akropolis 1-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Akropolis?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Akropolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Jonkopings Sodra run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Akropolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Akropolis 4-1 at Vapenvallen, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.49 xG and Akropolis 0.73 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.33 / defence 1.02 against Akropolis attack 0.73 / defence 1.29, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 55% | Draw 26% | Akropolis 18%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.