IK brage 1-0 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Osters IF travel to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 June 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
IK brage at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — IK brage are significantly better at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Osters IF — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Osters IF have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IK brage 1.70 PPG, Osters IF 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IK brage register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Osters IF in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, IK brage have won 2, Osters IF 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Osters IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IK brage trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Osters IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 57% and Osters IF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 60% | Osters IF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.23 xG and Osters IF 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.943 / defence 0.940 | Osters IF attack 1.197 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 0.999. Data: 40 IK brage games / 40 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 39% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 33%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Osters IF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: IK brage 60% | Osters IF 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 39% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG IK brage 1.23 / Osters IF 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.943 / def 0.940 | Osters IF attack 1.197 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.337 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: IK brage (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Osters IF xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Osters IF kick off?
IK brage vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 June 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Osters IF?
IK brage 1 - 0 Osters IF.
Where is IK brage vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Osters IF part of?
IK brage vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 39% chance of winning, Osters IF a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both IK brage and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Osters IF?
Record (6 meetings): IK brage 2W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 3W.
What form are IK brage and Osters IF in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IK brage's attack at 0.94x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.55
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.36
1.12
Osters IF xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are IK brage and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for IK brage and 1.12 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 23W 14D 23L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Osters IF's form line: 28W 15D 17L from 60 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.38 PPG, Osters IF on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (15W 6D 9L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 12W 9D 9L from 30 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.70 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Osters IF in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 28W 15D 17L in their last 60 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Osters IF away?
IK brage's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.70 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Osters IF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
IK brage
1
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Osters IF?
From 9 meetings on record, IK brage have won 4, Osters IF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Osters IF 3-2 IK brage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IK brage at 57%, Osters IF at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for IK brage and 63% for Osters IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of IK brage's games and 73% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of IK brage's matches and 63% of Osters IF's.
Do IK brage and Osters IF tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Osters IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Osters IF 1-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.23 xG and Osters IF 1.12 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Osters IF attack 1.20 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 39% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 33%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 60%, Osters IF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Osters IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.38 PPG, Osters IF 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.