IK brage 4-0 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna make the trip to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to face IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IK brage have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — IK brage are significantly better at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
AFC Eskilstuna (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward IK brage. A 0.80 PPG lead over AFC Eskilstuna (1.40 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IK brage lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
AFC Eskilstuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 61% versus AFC Eskilstuna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 61% | AFC Eskilstuna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.64 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.059 / defence 1.015 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.677 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.285. Data: 56 IK brage games / 56 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 55% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 19%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | AFC Eskilstuna 5.26. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: IK brage 80% | AFC Eskilstuna 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 55% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG IK brage 1.64 / AFC Eskilstuna 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.059 / def 1.015 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.677 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: IK brage (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.88
AFC Eskilstuna xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna?
IK brage 4 - 0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 55% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (5 meetings): IK brage 2W | Draws 1 | AFC Eskilstuna 2W.
What form are IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from IK brage's attack rating (1.06) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AFC Eskilstuna's attack (0.68x) against IK brage's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.87
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.53
0.88
AFC Eskilstuna xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
4%
26.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for IK brage and 0.88 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 21W 14D 21L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna's form line: 18W 12D 26L from 56 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for IK brage against 1.18 for AFC Eskilstuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (13W 6D 9L).
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 6W 7D 15L from 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.25 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 games (1.38 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 18W 12D 26L in their last 56 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
IK brage's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.61 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 4-0 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AFC Eskilstuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
IK brage
1
Draws
2
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, AFC Eskilstuna have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when IK brage 4-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 61%, AFC Eskilstuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (IK brage) and 50% (AFC Eskilstuna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of IK brage's games and 50% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of IK brage's matches and 50% of AFC Eskilstuna's.
Do IK brage and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IK brage run riot with a 4-0 hammering of AFC Eskilstuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat AFC Eskilstuna 4-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.64 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 0.88 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Eskilstuna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.68 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 55% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 19%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 61%, AFC Eskilstuna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.38 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.