IFK Varnamo 2-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Varnamo host Jonkopings Sodra at Finnvedsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 16 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo at Finnvedsvallen this season: 7W 1D 1L from 9 home games — 2.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Finnvedsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — IFK Varnamo are significantly better at Finnvedsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Jonkopings Sodra have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IFK Varnamo 1.90 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IFK Varnamo, 0 for Jonkopings Sodra and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2021, ended 3–0 with IFK Varnamo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 21% versus Jonkopings Sodra 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (IFK Varnamo 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.19 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.901 / defence 0.834 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.870 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.099. Data: 19 IFK Varnamo games / 18 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 45% | Draw 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 25%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Jonkopings Sodra 4.00. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 22% | Jonkopings Sodra 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 45% | Draw 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.19 / Jonkopings Sodra 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.901 / def 0.834 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.870 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Jonkopings Sodra xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 16 September 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra?
IFK Varnamo 2 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 45% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Varnamo 1W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 0W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Jonkopings Sodra in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.90x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.31
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.98
0.80
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
8%
13.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.80 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 19 games, going 11W 3D 5L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jonkopings Sodra sit at 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (9W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.89 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 7W 1D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — IFK Varnamo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jonkopings Sodra have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jonkopings Sodra's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.42 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in 21% of their recent games.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 11W 3D 5L in their last 19 games (1.89 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 9W 3D 7L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.44 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.11 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Jonkopings Sodra been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Jonkopings Sodra in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Jonkopings Sodra runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
0
Draws
0
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 2 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2021, when IFK Varnamo 2-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Jonkopings Sodra?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — IFK Varnamo 22% BTTS, Jonkopings Sodra 44%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for IFK Varnamo and 44% for Jonkopings Sodra.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Jonkopings Sodra in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 44% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 44% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.19 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.80 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.90 / defence 0.83 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.87 / defence 1.19, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 45% | Draw 30% | Jonkopings Sodra 25%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 26%, Jonkopings Sodra 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.89 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.