IFK Norrkoping 0-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 59%, yet in-form Norrby IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Norrby IF travel to Norrkopings Idrottspark to take on IFK Norrkoping. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 June 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Norrkoping stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. IFK Norrkoping haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
IFK Norrkoping at Norrkopings Idrottspark this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have recorded 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Norrby IF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Norrby IF are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.89 xG and Norrby IF 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.114 / defence 0.835 | Norrby IF attack 0.791 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.460. Data: 13 IFK Norrkoping games / 13 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 59% | Draw 22% | Norrby IF 19%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Norrby IF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to IFK Norrkoping (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Norrkoping at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Norrby IF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Norrkopings Idrottspark • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jun 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 59% | Draw 22% | Norrby IF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.89 / Norrby IF 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.114 / def 0.835 | Norrby IF attack 0.791 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Norrby IF xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 June 2026 at Norrkopings Idrottspark.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF?
IFK Norrkoping 0 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Norrkopings Idrottspark.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 59% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Norrby IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Norrby IF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Norrby IF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Norrby IF's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.52
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.86
0.96
Norrby IF xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
3%
35.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.96 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L. IFK Norrkoping haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Norrby IF sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Norrby IF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Norrby IF in 100%.
Defensively: IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
Norrby IF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have IFK Norrkoping or Norrby IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Norrby IF in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 28 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
IFK Norrkoping
0
Draws
1
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Norrby IF?
From 1 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 0, Norrby IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2026, when IFK Norrkoping 0-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Norrby IF?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of IFK Norrkoping's games and 100% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 50% of Norrby IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Norrby IF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Norrby IF defy the odds to beat IFK Norrkoping 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat IFK Norrkoping 0-1 at Norrkopings Idrottspark, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.89 xG and Norrby IF 0.96 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.11 / defence 0.83 against Norrby IF attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 59% | Draw 22% | Norrby IF 19%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Norrby IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 50%, Norrby IF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IFK Norrkoping managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Norrby IF managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.