IF Brommapojkarna 4-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Ostersunds FK travel to Grimsta IP to take on IF Brommapojkarna. The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ostersunds FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.78 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.152 / defence 1.127 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.603 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.399. Data: 7 IF Brommapojkarna games / 7 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 56% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 19%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Ostersunds FK 5.26. The model has a clear lean to IF Brommapojkarna (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Thursday 19 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 56% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.78 / Ostersunds FK 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.152 / def 1.127 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.603 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Ostersunds FK xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 19 May 2022 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK?
IF Brommapojkarna 4 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 56% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Ostersunds FK in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 1.15x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
56%
1.78
25%
4.01
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.73
0.95
Ostersunds FK xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
3%
31.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 0.95 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Brommapojkarna and Ostersunds FK runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
0
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Ostersunds FK?
From 2 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 20 August 2022, when Ostersunds FK 2-3 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Ostersunds FK?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant IF Brommapojkarna run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Ostersunds FK 4-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.78 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.95 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.15 / defence 1.13 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.60 / defence 1.00, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 56% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 19%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.