IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna and Orebro SK meet at Grimsta IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 3 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Brommapojkarna have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna at Grimsta IP this season: 6W 2D 0L from 8 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — IF Brommapojkarna are significantly better at Grimsta IP than their overall form suggests.
Orebro SK (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IF Brommapojkarna lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 2–0 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
IF Brommapojkarna half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 81% versus Orebro SK 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 69% | Orebro SK 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 2.42 xG and Orebro SK 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.620 / defence 1.106 | Orebro SK attack 0.744 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.292. IF Brommapojkarna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.620 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 IF Brommapojkarna games / 16 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 66% | Draw 20% | Orebro SK 14%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Orebro SK 7.14. The model has a clear lean to IF Brommapojkarna (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 88% | Orebro SK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 66% | Draw 20% | Orebro SK 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 61% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 2.42 / Orebro SK 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.620 / def 1.106 | Orebro SK attack 0.744 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Orebro SK xG
61%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 3 August 2022 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK?
IF Brommapojkarna 2 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 66% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Orebro SK?
Record (1 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 1W | Draws 0 | Orebro SK 0W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Orebro SK in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (1.62x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.42. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.74x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.0%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
66%
1.51
20%
4.99
14%
7.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.48
1.06
Orebro SK xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
7.23
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
9%
11.25
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
1%
81.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.06 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 7W 5D 4L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 7W 2D 7L from 16 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for IF Brommapojkarna against 1.44 for Orebro SK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 2.43 PPG from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — IF Brommapojkarna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.12 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games.
Defensively: Orebro SK in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 7W 5D 4L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 7W 2D 7L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Orebro SK away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 2.43 PPG; Orebro SK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
0
Draws
0
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Orebro SK?
From 2 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Orebro SK have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2022, when IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Orebro SK?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 86%, Orebro SK 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for IF Brommapojkarna and 43% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 43%; Orebro SK in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 29% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 43% of Orebro SK's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Orebro SK tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Brommapojkarna edge out Orebro SK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Orebro SK 2-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 2.42 xG and Orebro SK 1.06 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.62 / defence 1.11 against Orebro SK attack 0.74 / defence 1.03, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 66% | Draw 20% | Orebro SK 14%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 69%, Orebro SK 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.62 PPG, Orebro SK 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.