IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna and AFC Eskilstuna meet at Grimsta IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Monday 15 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
IF Brommapojkarna's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's home record at Grimsta IP: 7W 2D 0L from 9 Superettan appearances (2.56 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 89% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — IF Brommapojkarna are significantly better at Grimsta IP than their overall form suggests.
AFC Eskilstuna have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward IF Brommapojkarna. A 0.60 PPG lead over AFC Eskilstuna (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — IF Brommapojkarna register both teams scoring in 89% of relevant games, AFC Eskilstuna in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IF Brommapojkarna lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 1–3 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
IF Brommapojkarna half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
AFC Eskilstuna half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Brommapojkarna 78% and AFC Eskilstuna 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (IF Brommapojkarna 67% | AFC Eskilstuna 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 2.84 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.601 / defence 1.107 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.116 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.331. IF Brommapojkarna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.601 — their λ of 2.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AFC Eskilstuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing IF Brommapojkarna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 IF Brommapojkarna games / 48 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 62% | Draw 18% | AFC Eskilstuna 20%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 1.61 | Draw 5.56 | AFC Eskilstuna 5.00. The model has a clear lean to IF Brommapojkarna (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.84 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.48 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 89% | AFC Eskilstuna 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 62% | Draw 18% | AFC Eskilstuna 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 76% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 2.84 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.601 / def 1.107 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.116 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.84
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.64
AFC Eskilstuna xG
76%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 62% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (1 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 0W | Draws 0 | AFC Eskilstuna 1W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and AFC Eskilstuna in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (1.60x league average) is weighed against AFC Eskilstuna's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.84. Flip it around — AFC Eskilstuna's attack (1.12x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.1%), 2-2 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
62%
1.61
18%
5.62
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.84
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
4.48
1.64
AFC Eskilstuna xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.62
18%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.24
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
6%
17.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
1%
84.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 2.84 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.64 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 4.48.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 9W 5D 4L from 18 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 7L across 18 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for IF Brommapojkarna against 1.50 for AFC Eskilstuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 6W 2D 0L from 8 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — IF Brommapojkarna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.94 scored and 1.61 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; AFC Eskilstuna in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 9W 5D 4L in their last 18 games (1.78 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 8W 3D 7L in their last 18 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 2.50 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
0
Draws
1
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 2 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2022, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for IF Brommapojkarna, 88% for AFC Eskilstuna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for IF Brommapojkarna and 75% for AFC Eskilstuna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 88% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 75% of AFC Eskilstuna's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Brommapojkarna edge out AFC Eskilstuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 2.84 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.64 xG, a combined 4.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.8 short of their projected output. AFC Eskilstuna landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.60 / defence 1.11 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.12 / defence 1.29, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 62% | Draw 18% | AFC Eskilstuna 20%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and missed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 67%, AFC Eskilstuna 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.78 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.