GIF Sundsvall 2-3 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Osters IF travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 April 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. GIF Sundsvall haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at NP3 Arena this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NP3 Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Osters IF's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
GIF Sundsvall carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 0 for Osters IF and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 53% versus Osters IF 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 40% | Osters IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 0.95 xG and Osters IF 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.832 / defence 1.289 | Osters IF attack 0.999 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.018. Data: 3 GIF Sundsvall games / 33 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 27% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 45%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Osters IF 2.22. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIF Sundsvall (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Osters IF 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 27% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG GIF Sundsvall 0.95 / Osters IF 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.832 / def 1.289 | Osters IF attack 0.999 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Osters IF xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 24 April 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 3 Osters IF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 27% chance of winning, Osters IF a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF?
Record (2 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
27%
3.68
28%
3.57
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.26
1.31
Osters IF xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
7%
13.67
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.6 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.31 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 8D 7L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. GIF Sundsvall haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.77 PPG, Osters IF on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 9W 4D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 1.53 points per game from 15 outings (6W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.57 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Osters IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 games (1.77 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 13W 9D 8L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Osters IF away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.07 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Osters IF in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 15 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osters IF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Osters IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
5
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF?
From 7 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Osters IF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 15 June 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 0-4 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 47%, Osters IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (GIF Sundsvall) and 53% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 60% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 53% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out GIF Sundsvall 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat GIF Sundsvall 2-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 0.95 xG and Osters IF 1.31 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osters IF outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.83 / defence 1.29 against Osters IF attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 27% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 45%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 40%, Osters IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.77 PPG, Osters IF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.