GIF Sundsvall 0-3 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 38%, yet in-form GIF Sundsvall provide a compelling counter-argument — this GIF Sundsvall vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Gais at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 6 June 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. GIF Sundsvall haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 6W 3D 1L at NP3 Arena — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NP3 Arena.
Across all Superettan games this season, Gais have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gais haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gais away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
GIF Sundsvall are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 1 for Gais and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Gais in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 53% versus Gais 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 40% | Gais 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.21 xG and Gais 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.923 / defence 1.246 | Gais attack 0.932 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.107. Data: 10 GIF Sundsvall games / 10 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 35% | Draw 27% | Gais 38%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Gais 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIF Sundsvall (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Gais 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jun 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 35% | Draw 27% | Gais 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.21 / Gais 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.923 / def 1.246 | Gais attack 0.932 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Gais (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Gais xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Gais kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 6 June 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Gais?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 3 Gais.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Gais part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Gais is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 35% chance of winning, Gais a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Gais?
Record (2 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Gais in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.92x the league average against Gais's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.70
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.49
1.28
Gais xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.28 for Gais, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 15W 8D 7L from 30 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. GIF Sundsvall haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 17L across 30 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. Gais haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIF Sundsvall by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gais heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 9W 4D 2L from 15 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 4W 2D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.03 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Gais
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Gais in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 games (1.77 PPG), while Gais have gone 8W 5D 17L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Gais away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.07 PPG; Gais away: 0.93 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gais in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Gais runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2023, when Gais won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Gais have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2023, when Gais 3-3 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Gais see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 47%, Gais 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (GIF Sundsvall) and 33% (Gais).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Gais in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 27% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 33% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Gais tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Gais in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 0-3 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat GIF Sundsvall 0-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.21 xG and Gais 1.28 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gais outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.92 / defence 1.25 against Gais attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 35% | Draw 27% | Gais 38%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 40%, Gais 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Gais's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Gais winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.