GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Falkenbergs FF (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as GIF Sundsvall face Falkenbergs FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Falkenbergs FF travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 2W 1D 7L at NP3 Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Falkenbergs FF have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Falkenbergs FF are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. GIF Sundsvall register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Falkenbergs FF in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 2 for Falkenbergs FF and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Falkenbergs FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Falkenbergs FF trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 53% versus Falkenbergs FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 53% | Falkenbergs FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.24 xG and Falkenbergs FF 3.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.753 / defence 1.454 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.419 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.467. GIF Sundsvall's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Falkenbergs FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.419 — the away xG of 3.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 GIF Sundsvall games / 45 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 12% | Draw 14% | Falkenbergs FF 73%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 8.33 | Draw 7.14 | Falkenbergs FF 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Falkenbergs FF (73%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.26. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.26 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 3.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Falkenbergs FF are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Falkenbergs FF 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 12% | Draw 14% | Falkenbergs FF 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 68% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.24 / Falkenbergs FF 3.03 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.753 / def 1.454 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.419 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (73%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
3.03
Falkenbergs FF xG
68%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 2 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 12% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 73% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (5 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 3 | Falkenbergs FF 2W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 3.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-3, at 8.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 0-3 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
12%
8.03
14%
7.03
73%
1.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.0%
Away win
0 – 3
6.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
4.26
3.03
Falkenbergs FF xG
8.03
12%
Home win
7.03
14%
Draw
1.36
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
5%
20.61
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
1%
165.45
21%
4.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 3.0 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 3.03 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 4.26.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 45 games, going 14W 7D 24L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Falkenbergs FF sit at 1.64 PPG from 45 outings (20W 14D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Falkenbergs FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 5W 5D 12L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Falkenbergs FF have taken 1.41 points per game from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Falkenbergs FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.84 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 14W 7D 24L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 20W 14D 11L in their last 45 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
Falkenbergs FF's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 0.91 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 1.41 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Falkenbergs FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Falkenbergs FF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Falkenbergs FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Falkenbergs FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Falkenbergs FF specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
3
Draws
3
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF?
From 6 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Falkenbergs FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — GIF Sundsvall at 64%, Falkenbergs FF at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for GIF Sundsvall and 73% for Falkenbergs FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Falkenbergs FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 73% of Falkenbergs FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 73% of Falkenbergs FF's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Falkenbergs FF edge out GIF Sundsvall 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.24 xG and Falkenbergs FF 3.03 xG, a combined 4.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Falkenbergs FF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.75 / defence 1.45 against Falkenbergs FF attack 1.42 / defence 1.10, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 12% | Draw 14% | Falkenbergs FF 73%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 53%, Falkenbergs FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Falkenbergs FF arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.