Gefle IF 2-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gavlevallen plays host to Gefle IF versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gefle IF have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gefle IF's home record at Gavlevallen: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gefle IF are significantly better at Gavlevallen than their overall form suggests.
IK brage (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IK brage have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IK brage are 0.50 PPG clear of Gefle IF in recent Superettan fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Gefle IF 1W, IK brage 0W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Gefle IF half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 54% versus IK brage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 58% | IK brage 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 0.88 xG and IK brage 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 0.966 / defence 1.239 | IK brage attack 0.786 / defence 0.658. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.185. IK brage's defence strength of 0.658 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Gefle IF games / 55 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 27% | Draw 32% | IK brage 41%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | IK brage 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 60% | IK brage 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 27% | Draw 32% | IK brage 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Gefle IF 0.88 / IK brage 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 0.966 / def 1.239 | IK brage attack 0.786 / def 0.658 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: IK brage (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
IK brage xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs IK brage kick off?
Gefle IF vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs IK brage?
Gefle IF 2 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Gefle IF vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs IK brage part of?
Gefle IF vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 27% chance of winning, IK brage a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gefle IF and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and IK brage?
Record (3 meetings): Gefle IF 1W | Draws 2 | IK brage 0W.
What form are Gefle IF and IK brage in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. IK brage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Gefle IF vs IK brage?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gefle IF's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.79x) against Gefle IF's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
27%
3.72
32%
3.15
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.03
1.16
IK brage xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
8%
11.79
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.2 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.16 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gefle IF's recent record stands at 15W 17D 23L from 55 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 21L across 55 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Gefle IF against 1.42 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gefle IF have managed 11W 8D 8L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 6W 7D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IK brage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gefle IF are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.20 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and IK brage in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 15W 17D 23L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while IK brage have gone 22W 12D 21L in their last 55 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or IK brage away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.52 PPG; IK brage away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Gefle IF or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gefle IF have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, IK brage in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gefle IF have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gefle IF
2
Draws
0
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and IK brage?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 2, IK brage have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2024, when Gefle IF 2-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and IK brage?
Gefle IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 59%, IK brage 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Gefle IF) and 30% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: IK brage in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Gefle IF's recent matches and 37% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gefle IF vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Gefle IF's recent games and 30% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gefle IF and IK brage tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, IK brage in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gefle IF defy the odds to beat IK brage 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat IK brage 2-1 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 0.88 xG and IK brage 1.16 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gefle IF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 0.97 / defence 1.24 against IK brage attack 0.79 / defence 0.66, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 27% | Draw 32% | IK brage 41%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Gefle IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 58%, IK brage 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.13 PPG, IK brage 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gefle IF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.