Gais 0-2 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host Vasteras SK FK at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gais — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 4W 1D 2L from 7 Superettan appearances (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vasteras SK FK — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Gais have won 1, Vasteras SK FK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gais in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 43% versus Vasteras SK FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 50% | Vasteras SK FK 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.21 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.922 / defence 0.932 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.294 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.091. Vasteras SK FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Gais games / 44 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 34% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 39%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Vasteras SK FK 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Gais 29% | Vasteras SK FK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 24 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 34% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Gais 1.21 / Vasteras SK FK 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.922 / def 0.932 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.294 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Vasteras SK FK xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Gais vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 July 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Gais 0 - 2 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Gais vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Gais vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 34% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gais and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (2 meetings): Gais 1W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are Gais and Vasteras SK FK in?
Gais (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gais's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.73
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Gais xG
Total xG
2.52
1.32
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gais and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Gais and 1.32 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gais come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 4D 3L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 2.14 PPG from 14 outings (9W 3D 2L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gais on 1.79 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 2.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gais's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 2.14 points per game from 7 outings (5W 0D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gais are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.71 scored and 0.64 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Vasteras SK FK in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 9W 3D 2L in their last 14 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.86 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Gais or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gais go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2021, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Gais
0
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Vasteras SK FK?
From 7 meetings on record, Gais have won 4, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Vasteras SK FK?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 29%, Vasteras SK FK 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Gais and 86% for Vasteras SK FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Gais's recent matches and 71% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Gais's matches and 86% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Gais and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gais.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Gais 0-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.21 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.32 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gais fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.92 / defence 0.93 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.29 / defence 0.91, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 34% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 39%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 50%, Vasteras SK FK 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.79 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 2.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.