Falkenbergs FF 1-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees IK brage travel to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena to take on Falkenbergs FF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Falkenbergs FF — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Falkenbergs FF's home record at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Falkenbergs FF are significantly better at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
IK brage's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IK brage — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Falkenbergs FF have won 1, IK brage 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2021, ended 1–0 with Falkenbergs FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Falkenbergs FF in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Falkenbergs FF 66% and IK brage 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 59% | IK brage 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.61 xG and IK brage 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 1.036 / defence 1.679 | IK brage attack 0.874 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.233. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Falkenbergs FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Falkenbergs FF games / 29 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 34% | Draw 24% | IK brage 42%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | IK brage 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IK brage at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Falkenbergs FF 80% | IK brage 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 34% | Draw 24% | IK brage 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.61 / IK brage 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 1.036 / def 1.679 | IK brage attack 0.874 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: IK brage (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.81
IK brage xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage?
Falkenbergs FF 1 - 2 IK brage.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 34% chance of winning, IK brage a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and IK brage?
Record (1 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 1W | Draws 0 | IK brage 0W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and IK brage in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Falkenbergs FF's attack at 1.04x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
34%
2.95
24%
4.17
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
3.42
1.81
IK brage xG
2.95
34%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
6%
17.98
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.81 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Falkenbergs FF have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 6W 7D 16L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
IK brage's form line: 9W 9D 11L from 29 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Falkenbergs FF on 0.86 PPG, IK brage on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Falkenbergs FF have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L).
On the road, IK brage have gone 3W 5D 6L from 14 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.31 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and IK brage in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 6W 7D 16L in their last 29 games (0.86 PPG), while IK brage have gone 9W 9D 11L in their last 29 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or IK brage away?
Falkenbergs FF's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 1.07 PPG; IK brage away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Falkenbergs FF's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Falkenbergs FF
0
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and IK brage?
From 5 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 3, IK brage have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when IK brage 2-4 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and IK brage?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 64%, IK brage 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Falkenbergs FF and 57% for IK brage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF have failed to score in 29% of games; IK brage in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Falkenbergs FF's games and 64% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 57% of IK brage's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and IK brage tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, IK brage in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Falkenbergs FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Falkenbergs FF 1-2 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.61 xG and IK brage 1.81 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 1.04 / defence 1.68 against IK brage attack 0.87 / defence 1.41, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 34% | Draw 24% | IK brage 42%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 59%, IK brage 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Falkenbergs FF 0.86 PPG, IK brage 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.