Akropolis 1-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Akropolis take on IK brage.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Akropolis and IK brage meet at Grimsta IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 April 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akropolis 0.69 xG and IK brage 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akropolis attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | IK brage attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.707 / away 0.508. Data: 0 Akropolis games / 0 IK brage games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Akropolis 35% | Draw 42% | IK brage 23%. Fair-value odds: Akropolis 2.86 | Draw 2.38 | IK brage 4.35. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 12% | BTTS probability 20% | Total xG 1.19. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 88% probability — total xG of 1.19 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 80% — IK brage's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 20%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 12% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akropolis vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akropolis 35% | Draw 42% | IK brage 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 12% | BTTS 20% | xG Akropolis 0.69 / IK brage 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Akropolis attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | IK brage attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.707 / away 0.508 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Akropolis xG
Expected Goals
0.50
IK brage xG
20%
BTTS
33%
Over 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
3%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akropolis vs IK brage kick off?
Akropolis vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in Akropolis vs IK brage?
Akropolis 1 - 1 IK brage.
Where is Akropolis vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is Akropolis vs IK brage part of?
Akropolis vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Akropolis vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Akropolis a 35% chance of winning, IK brage a 23% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Akropolis vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 20% probability that both Akropolis and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Akropolis vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 12%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Akropolis and IK brage in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Akropolis's attack rating (0.85) and IK brage's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.85x) against Akropolis's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.50.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 31.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.7%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 65% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.84
42%
2.39
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
30.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
21.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Akropolis xG
Total xG
1.19
0.50
IK brage xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.39
42%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
33%
Over 1.5
3.03
67%
Under 1.5
1.49
12%
Over 2.5
8.33
88%
Under 2.5
1.14
3%
Over 3.5
33.33
97%
Under 3.5
1.03
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
20%
BTTS Yes
5.12
80%
BTTS No
1.24
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30.5 | 15.2 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.1 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akropolis vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 31.8%.
How many goals are Akropolis and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Akropolis and 0.50 for IK brage, a combined total of 1.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Akropolis vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akropolis
Pre-Season
IK brage
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Akropolis
1
Draws
1
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akropolis and IK brage?
From 2 meetings on record, Akropolis have won 0, IK brage have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akropolis and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when IK brage 2-0 Akropolis.
Who has won more matches between Akropolis and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akropolis home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Akropolis and IK brage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akropolis and IK brage finished level at 1-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akropolis 0.69 xG and IK brage 0.50 xG, a combined 1.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akropolis attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against IK brage attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akropolis 35% | Draw 42% | IK brage 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 12%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 33% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 20% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.