AFC Eskilstuna 3-0 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 16 as AFC Eskilstuna welcome Skövde AIK to Tunavallen. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Eskilstuna stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Tunavallen this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Skövde AIK — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Skövde AIK away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AFC Eskilstuna are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Skövde AIK have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for AFC Eskilstuna.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2023, ended 0–1 with Skövde AIK winning.
It is worth noting that Skövde AIK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
AFC Eskilstuna trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Skövde AIK trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 53% versus Skövde AIK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 51% | Skövde AIK 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.44 xG and Skövde AIK 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.800 / defence 0.881 | Skövde AIK attack 0.676 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.124. Skövde AIK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 AFC Eskilstuna games / 45 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 56% | Draw 27% | Skövde AIK 17%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Skövde AIK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to AFC Eskilstuna (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Skövde AIK lead the H2H ledger, but AFC Eskilstuna carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates AFC Eskilstuna as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 40% | Skövde AIK 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 56% | Draw 27% | Skövde AIK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 37% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.44 / Skövde AIK 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.800 / def 0.881 | Skövde AIK attack 0.676 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Skövde AIK xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 July 2023 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK?
AFC Eskilstuna 3 - 0 Skövde AIK.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 56% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Skövde AIK?
Record (3 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 0 | Skövde AIK 3W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Skövde AIK in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Skövde AIK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Skövde AIK's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Skövde AIK's attack versus AFC Eskilstuna's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.71
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.11
0.67
Skövde AIK xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
4%
24.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 11.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.67 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, AFC Eskilstuna have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 16W 9D 20L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Skövde AIK's form line: 13W 15D 17L from 45 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Eskilstuna on 1.27 PPG, Skövde AIK on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AFC Eskilstuna have posted 1.55 PPG from 22 outings (10W 4D 8L).
On the road, Skövde AIK have gone 5W 5D 12L from 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.16 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 16W 9D 20L in their last 45 games (1.27 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 13W 15D 17L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Skövde AIK away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.55 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 0.91 PPG.
Have AFC Eskilstuna or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Eskilstuna have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Eskilstuna and Skövde AIK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Skövde AIK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Eskilstuna's record when hosting Skövde AIK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Eskilstuna
0
Draws
3
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Skövde AIK?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, Skövde AIK have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 3-0 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Skövde AIK?
Skövde AIK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 54%, Skövde AIK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 54% (Skövde AIK).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna have failed to score in 27% of games; Skövde AIK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Skövde AIK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 50% of Skövde AIK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 54% of Skövde AIK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AFC Eskilstuna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Skövde AIK 3-0 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.44 xG and Skövde AIK 0.67 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.80 / defence 0.88 against Skövde AIK attack 0.68 / defence 1.26, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 56% | Draw 27% | Skövde AIK 17%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 51%, Skövde AIK 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.27 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.