AFC Eskilstuna 0-1 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna and Orebro SK meet at Tunavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Eskilstuna's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Tunavallen this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Orebro SK (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for AFC Eskilstuna, 1.10 for Orebro SK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AFC Eskilstuna 0W, Orebro SK 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Orebro SK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
AFC Eskilstuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 57% versus Orebro SK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 57% | Orebro SK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.67 xG and Orebro SK 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.093 / defence 1.070 | Orebro SK attack 0.752 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.306. Data: 54 AFC Eskilstuna games / 24 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 51% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 23%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Orebro SK 4.35. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 70% | Orebro SK 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 51% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.67 / Orebro SK 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.093 / def 1.070 | Orebro SK attack 0.752 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Orebro SK xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK?
AFC Eskilstuna 0 - 1 Orebro SK.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 51% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Orebro SK?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 0 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Orebro SK in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating (1.09) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orebro SK's attack (0.75x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
51%
1.95
25%
3.96
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.72
1.05
Orebro SK xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
4%
22.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.05 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Eskilstuna's recent record stands at 21W 10D 23L from 54 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 31L across 54 games — 0.91 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AFC Eskilstuna by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orebro SK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AFC Eskilstuna have managed 14W 5D 7L from 26 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Orebro SK's away record stands at 5W 4D 17L across 26 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.93 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 21W 10D 23L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 13W 10D 31L in their last 54 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Orebro SK away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.81 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orebro SK won 3-0 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Eskilstuna
0
Draws
3
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, Orebro SK have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 3-0 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Orebro SK?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 58%, Orebro SK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 54% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Orebro SK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 42% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 54% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Orebro SK tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orebro SK defy the odds to beat AFC Eskilstuna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat AFC Eskilstuna 0-1 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.67 xG and Orebro SK 1.05 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Eskilstuna fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Orebro SK attack 0.75 / defence 1.03, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 51% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 23%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Orebro SK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 57%, Orebro SK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orebro SK's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Eskilstuna arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Orebro SK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Orebro SK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.