Sirius 2-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sirius host Varbergs BoIS FC at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sirius 1.00 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sirius, 1 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 49% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 51% | Varbergs BoIS FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.67 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.814 / defence 0.820 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.903 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.257. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Sirius games / 59 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 53% | Draw 28% | Varbergs BoIS FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Varbergs BoIS FC 5.26. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 40% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 53% | Draw 28% | Varbergs BoIS FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Sirius 1.67 / Varbergs BoIS FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.814 / def 0.820 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.903 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Sirius (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Sirius 2 - 3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 53% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (5 meetings): Sirius 2W | Draws 2 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1W.
What form are Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Sirius (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.81x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.53
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.60
0.93
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
4%
28.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sirius and 0.93 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 19W 15D 25L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 16W 17D 26L from 59 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.22 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (13W 4D 12L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 7W 7D 15L from 29 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.07 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 19W 15D 25L in their last 59 games (1.22 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 16W 17D 26L in their last 59 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Sirius's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.48 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Sirius won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when Sirius 7-0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 41%, Varbergs BoIS FC 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sirius) and 62% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sirius have failed to score in 28% of games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sirius's recent matches and 66% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sirius's recent games and 62% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Varbergs BoIS FC defy the odds to beat Sirius 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Sirius 2-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.67 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.81 / defence 0.82 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.39, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 53% | Draw 28% | Varbergs BoIS FC 19%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Varbergs BoIS FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 51%, Varbergs BoIS FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.22 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.