Sirius 2-5 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Malmo FF travel to Studenternas IP to take on Sirius. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2020, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Malmo FF — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sirius 1.60 PPG, Malmo FF 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 60% and Malmo FF 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 50% | Malmo FF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.53 xG and Malmo FF 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.234 / defence 1.368 | Malmo FF attack 0.875 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.168. Data: 10 Sirius games / 10 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 41% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 35%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Malmo FF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 80% | Malmo FF 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 41% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Sirius 1.53 / Malmo FF 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.234 / def 1.368 | Malmo FF attack 0.875 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Sirius (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Malmo FF xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Malmo FF kick off?
Sirius vs Malmo FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 July 2020 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Sirius 2 - 5 Malmo FF.
Where is Sirius vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Malmo FF part of?
Sirius vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 41% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sirius and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Malmo FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.23x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
41%
2.46
25%
4.07
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.93
1.40
Malmo FF xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sirius and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sirius and 1.40 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sirius come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 4D 2L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.90 PPG from 10 outings (5W 4D 1L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.60 PPG, Malmo FF on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sirius's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Malmo FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.60 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Malmo FF in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Malmo FF away?
Sirius's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 2.00 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sirius or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Malmo FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Sirius won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
1
Draws
5
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, Malmo FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sirius at 100%, Malmo FF at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sirius and 50% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Sirius's games and 75% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sirius's matches and 50% of Malmo FF's.
Do Sirius and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Malmo FF run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Sirius 2-5 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.53 xG and Malmo FF 1.40 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Malmo FF outscored their 1.40 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.23 / defence 1.37 against Malmo FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 41% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 35%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Malmo FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 50%, Malmo FF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.60 PPG, Malmo FF 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.