Sirius 3-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Studenternas IP this season.
Kalmar FF (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Sirius, 1.50 for Kalmar FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sirius have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kalmar FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Sirius 0W, Kalmar FF 1W, 5D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 44% versus Kalmar FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 48% | Kalmar FF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.42 xG and Kalmar FF 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.979 / defence 1.245 | Kalmar FF attack 0.847 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.235. Data: 48 Sirius games / 48 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 34%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Kalmar FF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 60% | Kalmar FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sirius 1.42 / Kalmar FF 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.979 / def 1.245 | Kalmar FF attack 0.847 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Sirius (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Kalmar FF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Sirius vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Sirius 3 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is Sirius vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Kalmar FF part of?
Sirius vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 40% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sirius and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
Record (6 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 5 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Sirius and Kalmar FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sirius's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.85x) against Sirius's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.86
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.72
1.30
Kalmar FF xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sirius and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sirius and 1.30 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius's recent record stands at 13W 13D 22L from 48 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 15L across 48 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kalmar FF by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sirius heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 8W 3D 13L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kalmar FF's season.
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.29 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 13W 13D 22L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 22W 11D 15L in their last 48 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Kalmar FF away?
Kalmar FF's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.12 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Sirius or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
5
Draws
1
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 46%, Kalmar FF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sirius) and 46% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sirius have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sirius's recent matches and 58% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sirius's recent games and 46% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sirius run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Kalmar FF 3-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.42 xG and Kalmar FF 1.30 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kalmar FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.98 / defence 1.25 against Kalmar FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 40% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 34%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 48%, Kalmar FF 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kalmar FF arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.