Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Sirius welcome Hammarby FF to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Sirius) versus 2.00 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Hammarby FF have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Sirius's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Sirius winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hammarby FF have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hammarby FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 67% versus Hammarby FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 65% | Hammarby FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.53 xG and Hammarby FF 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.156 / defence 0.952 | Hammarby FF attack 1.030 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.473. Data: 31 Sirius games / 31 Hammarby FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 36%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Hammarby FF 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 70% | Hammarby FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 13 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 40% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Sirius 1.53 / Hammarby FF 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.156 / def 0.952 | Hammarby FF attack 1.030 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Sirius (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Hammarby FF xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 13 April 2026 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Sirius 2 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is Sirius vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Hammarby FF part of?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 40% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sirius and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
Record (9 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 6W.
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.16x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
40%
2.52
24%
4.10
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.98
1.45
Hammarby FF xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sirius and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sirius and 1.45 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 23W 11D 26L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Hammarby FF's form line: 35W 11D 14L from 60 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sirius.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 14W 6D 10L from 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.80 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 35W 11D 14L in their last 60 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.47 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Sirius or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sirius
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 57%, Hammarby FF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sirius and 53% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 40%; Sirius have failed to score in 30% of games; Hammarby FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sirius's recent matches and 43% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sirius's matches and 53% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Sirius and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Hammarby FF 2-0 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.53 xG and Hammarby FF 1.45 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hammarby FF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.16 / defence 0.95 against Hammarby FF attack 1.03 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 40% | Draw 24% | Hammarby FF 36%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 65%, Hammarby FF 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.