Sirius vs Degerfors IF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sirius (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sirius face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Monday 14 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sirius's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Sirius are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with Sirius winning.
The historical record gives Sirius a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 71% and Degerfors IF 49% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 74% | Degerfors IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.92 xG and Degerfors IF 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.080 / defence 1.199 | Degerfors IF attack 0.678 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Data: 49 Sirius games / 49 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 56% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 20%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Degerfors IF 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 60% | Degerfors IF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 14 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 56% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Sirius 1.92 / Degerfors IF 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.080 / def 1.199 | Degerfors IF attack 0.678 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Sirius (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Degerfors IF xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Sirius vs Degerfors IF is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Monday 14 September 2026 at Studenternas IP.
Where is Sirius vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Degerfors IF part of?
Sirius vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 56% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sirius and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
Record (9 meetings): Sirius 6W | Draws 2 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are Sirius and Degerfors IF in?
Sirius (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.08) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.68x) against Sirius's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.19
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.98
1.06
Degerfors IF xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
3%
34.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sirius and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Sirius and 1.06 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 49 games, going 24W 9D 16L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 0.94 PPG from 49 outings (12W 10D 27L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 13W 4D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 1.20 points per game from 25 outings (9W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.02 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 24W 9D 16L in their last 49 games (1.65 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 12W 10D 27L in their last 49 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Degerfors IF away?
Sirius's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.72 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 0-3 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Sirius
2
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Sirius have won 6, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Degerfors IF?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 60%, Degerfors IF 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Sirius and 64% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sirius's games and 56% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sirius's matches and 64% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Sirius and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.