Ostersunds FK 5-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Ostersunds FK take on Orebro SK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Ostersunds FK welcome Orebro SK to Jämtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Orebro SK's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Orebro SK's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 43% versus Orebro SK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | Orebro SK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.18 xG and Orebro SK 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.921 / defence 1.171 | Orebro SK attack 0.970 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.074. Data: 31 Ostersunds FK games / 31 Orebro SK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 32% | Draw 34% | Orebro SK 34%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Orebro SK 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Ostersunds FK 40% | Orebro SK 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 32% | Draw 34% | Orebro SK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.18 / Orebro SK 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.921 / def 1.171 | Orebro SK attack 0.970 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Orebro SK xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Ostersunds FK 5 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 32% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.92x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.14
34%
2.90
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.40
1.22
Orebro SK xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
10%
9.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.22 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 8W 9D 13L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Orebro SK's form line: 12W 6D 12L from 30 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.10 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 0.67 PPG from 15 outings (2W 4D 9L). That actually lags their 1.10 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.23 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Orebro SK away?
Orebro SK's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.67 PPG; Orebro SK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Orebro SK won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
4
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 4, Orebro SK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Ostersunds FK 3-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 47%, Orebro SK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ostersunds FK) and 53% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 47% of games; Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 47% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 53% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ostersunds FK run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Orebro SK 5-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.18 xG and Orebro SK 1.22 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Orebro SK attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 32% | Draw 34% | Orebro SK 34%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.10 PPG, Orebro SK 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.