Ostersunds FK 0-3 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Malmo FF (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ostersunds FK face Malmo FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Malmo FF travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Malmo FF — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Malmo FF are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ostersunds FK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Malmo FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Malmo FF 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Malmo FF trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 42% versus Malmo FF 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 52% | Malmo FF 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.08 xG and Malmo FF 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.943 / defence 1.261 | Malmo FF attack 1.265 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.053. Malmo FF's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Ostersunds FK games / 52 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 23% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 50%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Malmo FF 2.00. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 60% | Malmo FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 23% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.08 / Malmo FF 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.943 / def 1.261 | Malmo FF attack 1.265 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Malmo FF xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 3 Malmo FF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 23% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF?
Record (3 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | Malmo FF 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Malmo FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.94x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
23%
4.34
27%
3.68
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.76
1.68
Malmo FF xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
4%
23.28
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.68 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 11W 13D 28L from 52 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF, meanwhile, have gone 29W 14D 9L across 52 games — 1.94 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ostersunds FK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 5W 5D 15L from 25 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Malmo FF's away record stands at 11W 7D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.10 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 11W 13D 28L in their last 52 games (0.88 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 29W 14D 9L in their last 52 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.80 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2020, when Malmo FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
3
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Malmo FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2021, when Ostersunds FK 0-3 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 52%, Malmo FF 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Ostersunds FK and 64% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 32%; Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Ostersunds FK's games and 64% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 64% of Malmo FF's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Malmo FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Ostersunds FK 0-3 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.08 xG and Malmo FF 1.68 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Malmo FF outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against Malmo FF attack 1.26 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 23% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 50%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 52%, Malmo FF 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Malmo FF's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.