Ostersunds FK 0-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK and IF Elfsborg meet at Jämtkraft Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 August 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Ostersunds FK (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 0W 2D 4L at Jämtkraft Arena — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jämtkraft Arena this season.
IF Elfsborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 4W 2D 1L from 7 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
IF Elfsborg arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 46% versus IF Elfsborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 38% | IF Elfsborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 0.97 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.720 / defence 1.338 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.037 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.286. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IF Elfsborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Ostersunds FK games / 13 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 19% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 55%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 5.26 | Draw 3.70 | IF Elfsborg 1.82. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 50% | IF Elfsborg 43%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 19% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Ostersunds FK 0.97 / IF Elfsborg 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.720 / def 1.338 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.037 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.78
IF Elfsborg xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 August 2020 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 19% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ostersunds FK and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and IF Elfsborg in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (0.72) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.04x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
19%
5.40
27%
3.76
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.75
1.78
IF Elfsborg xG
5.40
19%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
3%
32.15
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.78 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 6D 5L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (6W 6D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 0W 2D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.92 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.69 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 6D 5L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 6W 6D 1L in their last 13 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.33 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 3-0 on 17 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
0
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IF Elfsborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 2, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2021, when Ostersunds FK 3-1 IF Elfsborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 50%, IF Elfsborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ostersunds FK) and 67% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 33%; Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 50% of games; IF Elfsborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 67% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Ostersunds FK and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Ostersunds FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Ostersunds FK 0-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 0.97 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.78 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.34 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.23, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 19% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 55%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 38%, IF Elfsborg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.