Ostersunds FK 2-2 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates BK Hacken at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees BK Hacken travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 July 2020, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 2W 1D 5L from 8 Allsvenskan matches — 0.88 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK at Jämtkraft Arena this season: 0W 0D 4L from 4 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.88 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jämtkraft Arena this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 3W 4D 1L from 8 outings — 1.62 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.88 per game and conceding 0.88. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 1L across 4 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.62 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BK Hacken are 0.74 PPG ahead (1.62 vs 0.88), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BK Hacken trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 38% versus BK Hacken 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 38% | BK Hacken 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.09 xG and BK Hacken 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.776 / defence 1.571 | BK Hacken attack 0.801 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.109. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. BK Hacken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Ostersunds FK games / 8 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 29% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 44%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | BK Hacken 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ostersunds FK 50% | BK Hacken 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jul 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 29% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.09 / BK Hacken 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.776 / def 1.571 | BK Hacken attack 0.801 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.40
BK Hacken xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 19 July 2020 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken?
Ostersunds FK 2 - 2 BK Hacken.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken part of?
Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 29% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-4D-1L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.88 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (0.78) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
29%
3.41
27%
3.74
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.48
1.40
BK Hacken xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
13.77
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.40 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 1L across 8 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BK Hacken by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ostersunds FK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.88 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 0W 3D 1L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.88 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: BK Hacken in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.00 PPG; BK Hacken away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2021, when BK Hacken won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, BK Hacken have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2021, when Ostersunds FK 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 50%, BK Hacken 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ostersunds FK) and 50% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ostersunds FK's games and 75% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 50% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 9, as Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.09 xG and BK Hacken 1.40 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.78 / defence 1.57 against BK Hacken attack 0.80 / defence 1.32, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 29% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 44%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 38%, BK Hacken 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.