Ostersunds FK 1-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 56%, yet in-form AIK Stockholm provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 7 as Ostersunds FK welcome AIK Stockholm to Jämtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 17 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ostersunds FK at Jämtkraft Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AIK Stockholm — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ostersunds FK have won 1, AIK Stockholm 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2020, ended 1–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 43% versus AIK Stockholm 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | AIK Stockholm 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.77 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.210 / defence 1.078 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.745 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.109. Data: 36 Ostersunds FK games / 36 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 56% | Draw 27% | AIK Stockholm 17%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | AIK Stockholm 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Ostersunds FK (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AIK Stockholm (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 40% | AIK Stockholm 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Monday 17 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 56% | Draw 27% | AIK Stockholm 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.77 / AIK Stockholm 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.210 / def 1.078 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.745 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.89
AIK Stockholm xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 17 May 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 56% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm?
Record (2 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
56%
1.77
27%
3.75
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.66
0.89
AIK Stockholm xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
3%
34.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.89 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 8W 9D 13L from 30 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 11L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.10 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 2W 4D 9L from 15 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.10 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 4W 7D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.00 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or AIK Stockholm away?
AIK Stockholm's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.67 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AIK Stockholm have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2021, when AIK Stockholm won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
0
Draws
3
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, AIK Stockholm have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when AIK Stockholm 3-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 47%, AIK Stockholm 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ostersunds FK) and 40% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 40%; Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 47% of games; AIK Stockholm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 40% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 40% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Ostersunds FK 1-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.77 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.89 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AIK Stockholm outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.21 / defence 1.08 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 56% | Draw 27% | AIK Stockholm 17%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, AIK Stockholm 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.10 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.