Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mjallby AIF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Orgryte IS in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Orgryte IS's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, Orgryte IS have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Mjallby AIF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 0 for Mjallby AIF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Orgryte IS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 50% versus Mjallby AIF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 54% | Mjallby AIF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.97 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.041 / defence 1.332 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.063 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.316. Data: 19 Orgryte IS games / 48 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 41% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 37%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Mjallby AIF 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | Mjallby AIF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 41% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Orgryte IS 1.97 / Mjallby AIF 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.041 / def 1.332 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.063 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Mjallby AIF xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 41% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Orgryte IS's attack rating (1.04) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.06x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 19/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
41%
2.46
23%
4.44
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.83
1.86
Mjallby AIF xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.75
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
6%
15.82
5%
19.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.86 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 19W 12D 17L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF's form line: 28W 11D 9L from 48 games, 1.98 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mjallby AIF are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orgryte IS.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L).
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 14W 5D 4L from 23 away games — 2.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.69 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 19W 12D 17L in their last 48 games (1.44 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 28W 11D 9L in their last 48 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.61 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
0
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF?
From 1 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 52%, Mjallby AIF 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Orgryte IS) and 61% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 56% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Orgryte IS's matches and 61% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Orgryte IS and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.