Orgryte IS 3-4 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 August 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Orgryte IS's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, AIK Stockholm in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Orgryte IS, 0 for AIK Stockholm and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 3–0 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 47% versus AIK Stockholm 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | AIK Stockholm 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.19 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.948 / defence 1.194 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.006 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.313. AIK Stockholm's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Orgryte IS games / 45 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 26% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 43%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | AIK Stockholm 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 60% | AIK Stockholm 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 26% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Orgryte IS 1.19 / AIK Stockholm 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.948 / def 1.194 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.006 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.58
AIK Stockholm xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm?
Orgryte IS 3 - 4 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 26% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Orgryte IS and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and AIK Stockholm?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 1W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 0W.
What form are Orgryte IS and AIK Stockholm in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
26%
3.83
30%
3.29
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.77
1.58
AIK Stockholm xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
5%
18.56
13%
7.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.58 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 19W 12D 14L from 45 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 13L across 45 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.53 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 10W 7D 5L from 22 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 8W 7D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.29 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 19W 12D 14L in their last 45 games (1.53 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 19W 13D 13L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.68 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
1
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and AIK Stockholm?
From 2 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, AIK Stockholm have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Orgryte IS 3-4 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 46%, AIK Stockholm 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Orgryte IS) and 54% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Orgryte IS have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 64% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 54% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Orgryte IS 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Orgryte IS 3-4 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.19 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.58 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AIK Stockholm outscored their 1.58 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.01 / defence 0.78, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 26% | Draw 30% | AIK Stockholm 43%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 53%, AIK Stockholm 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.53 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.