Mjallby AIF 2-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Vasteras SK FK travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mjallby AIF 1.00 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 1 for Vasteras SK FK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 49% versus Vasteras SK FK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 49% | Vasteras SK FK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.92 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.129 / defence 0.966 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.674 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.227. Data: 55 Mjallby AIF games / 25 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 64% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 15%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Vasteras SK FK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mjallby AIF 90% | Vasteras SK FK 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 64% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 47% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.92 / Vasteras SK FK 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.129 / def 0.966 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.674 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Vasteras SK FK xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 64% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 1.13x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
64%
1.57
22%
4.60
15%
6.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.71
0.80
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
6.79
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
2%
46.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.80 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 55 games, going 23W 11D 21L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.49 PPG from 55 outings (24W 10D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.45 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 11W 7D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.37 points per game from 27 outings (11W 4D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.27 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 11D 21L in their last 55 games (1.45 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 24W 10D 21L in their last 55 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.48 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 3 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-0 Vasteras SK FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 59%, Vasteras SK FK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mjallby AIF) and 52% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 44% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 52% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Vasteras SK FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.92 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.80 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 64% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 15%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 49%, Vasteras SK FK 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.45 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.